DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed in these articles do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Emissions Marketing Association. Your comments are encouraged and can be sent to: comments@emissions.org

 

A Publication of the Emissions Marketing Association
Serving the International Emissions Trading Community

VOLUME 4, ISSUE 3, JULY 2000

ISIP Call NOx Trading Issues...
Timing, Technology & Allocations
By David Wojick, PhD, PE
dwojick@shentel.net
 

With EPA’s stunning victory in the ozone transport litigation it is time to start thinking seriously about how the 22 state NOx trading game will play out. The most interesting uncertainties are timing, technology and allocation of allowances. Here is my take on some of the key issues.

The affected generators, states and EPA are negotiating new deadlines for the NOx control SIP call. Two drivers here are, first, that the original State Implementation Plan submission deadline has long since past, and second, that the reliability issue is looming larger all the time. In fact electric power reliability is crumbling before our eyes, but that is another story (see URL on page 4). So as things stand it is quite likely that the 2003 deadline will be extended from one to three years.

In addition, the results of the Presidential Election could have a profound effect on EPA’s entire Clean Air Program, including the SIP call. A Bush victory is likely to slow everything down, maybe a lot. A Gore victory can only increase the pressure. This is one of the most important presidential races in the last 100 years, especially for environmental programs.

For technology, timing is everything. The lure of the huge SIP call market is attracting a flood of new, innovative NOx control technologies. Most are untested, but then even the mainstream technologies are still new, and untested on US-scale plants. From an engineering point of view, the SIP call is a multi-billion dollar, world class experiment. Frightening but wonderful.

Since everything is untested, some technologies are going to work better than expected, others not as well as planned. In fact planning is impossible under these circumstances. Planning is hoping. This means which units are going to need how many allowances is really unpredictable.

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Also in this issue:

DAWN OF THE DEAL:
EMISSIONS TRADING
ON THE EVE OF COP-6

EMISSIONS TRADING 101

STATUS ON EVE OF COP-6

GHG PILOT PROGRAMS IN PRACTICE

EFFECTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT

NOx AND SO2 MARKET REPORT

INNOVATIVE FINANCING OF
GHG TRANSACTIONS

OUTCOMES AND PERSPECTIVES
TOWARDS COP-6